Cuba+Future+2009

The world will have several reasons to take notice of Cuba in 2009. The year will begin with the commemoration of the 50th anniversary of Fidel Castro’s revolution on January 2nd. The man himself, mentally alert but physically frail since abdominal surgery in 2006, may not make a public appearance. But there will be much official self-congratulation at the revolution’s survival in the face of an American trade embargo, CIA assassination attempts and the collapse of its former Soviet ally and patron. For the long-suffering Cuban people there will be little to celebrate. Their privations have been increased by the devastation of housing and agriculture wrought by twin hurricanes in September 2008. This will make it difficult for Raúl Castro, who formally succeeded his brother as president in early 2008, to fulfil promises of higher wages. He is likely to accelerate steps to decentralise economic decision-making to state companies and co-operatives, and to lease idle state land to private farmers. Hurricane damage will also make Cuba even more dependent on aid from Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez. Two other developments in 2009 should make the island’s medium-term future a bit clearer. The first is a new American president. A change in the White House brings with it at least a chance that the United States will loosen its economic embargo and encourage some sort of political dialogue with the Cuban regime, rather than leave United States policy frozen in futility. A second big question is oil. During 2009 a group of foreign oil companies will bring a drilling rig to the Cuban waters of the Gulf of Mexico to sink several exploratory wells. If they find oil, that will strengthen Mr Castro’s position—and also reduce his dependence on Mr Chávez. The year will end with a long-postponed congress of the ruling Communist Party. This will provide important pointers to a Cuba without the direction of the Castro brothers. Raúl Castro has surrounded himself with veteran leaders, many of whom have been in power for decades. His government has a transitional flavour to it. The party congress, the first since 1997, may see the emergence of a much younger and more pragmatic leadership. Even so, change in Cuba will proceed slowly—at least while Fidel Castro remains alive.
 * Cuba Future In 2009 **