Iran+Negotiations-+Current+Situation***article

Economist** Iran and America **

**A Persian puzzle** 

**Dennis Ross becomes Barack Obama's adviser on Iran. How will America now approach Iran?**

BARACK OBAMA has spoken of reaching out to difficult regimes, if only such opponents would unclench their fists. In turn Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has given some indication that his country would be willing to engage with America, if it could be done on the basis of “mutual respect”. The latest step in the delicate diplomatic dance between Iran and America was taken on Monday February 23rd, as Mr Obama named his new point-man for Iran. It has been a long time coming. For over a month rumours abounded that the job would go to Dennis Ross, a former negotiator for America in Arab-Israeli peace talks. But while other envoys to the Middle East were announced—one each for Palestine-Israel and Afghanistan-Pakistan—Mr Ross’s appointment was delayed. Some think him too close to Israel; a critical former State Department official has suggested that he was Israel’s lawyer in negotiations with the Palestinians, and he has lately hung his hat at a pro-Israel think-tank. Part of the delay may have revolved around his exact responsibilities and title. Rumour had it that he would be a “super-envoy” above all others in Middle East policy. That seems to have been overdone; he will instead be a “special adviser” for the Gulf and south-west Asia.

America has no direct relations with Iran, yet: deciding whether and how to open up to the country will be a delicate process. It remains unclear whether the Iranians will want to talk to Mr Ross at all: some Iran-policy experts suggest that his background will put the Iranians off. Nor is it clear what the scope of any talks might be. One view is that America and Iran should start small. They could, for example, limit first contacts to how America and Iran might work together in two countries of common (if not exactly mutual) interest, Iraq and Afghanistan. America has talked to Iran over Iraq, and America’s incoming ambassador to Iraq, Christopher Hill, is experienced at dealing with difficult regimes, having been a negotiator with North Korea. Afghanistan is another area of common concern; Iran will not want it to be dominated again by fanatical Sunnis, having nearly gone to war with the Taliban regime in 1998 over a massacre of Iranian diplomats. America, for its part, is worried about its supply lines to Afghanistan, as routes to the landlocked war zone currently go through Pakistan. However critics of the “start small” approach fear that without a strategic goal clearly communicated—say an American renunciation of “regime change” and a complete Iranian renunciation of nuclear weapons—Iran would merely stall during any talks. Timing is another ticklish issue for Mr Obama. Some urge him to begin engaging with Iran as soon as possible, to capitalise on the good will (at home and beyond) that has accompanied his election. But Iran holds its own presidential election in June and there is some uncertainty about the likely winner. Mr Ahmadinejad may be the favourite but his re-election is not guaranteed, given a shaky economy and frustration among urban Iranians who think he has needlessly isolated their country. Complicating the picture is the announcement that Muhammad Khatami, a reformist, will enter the race. When Mr Khatami was president, from 1997 to 2005, he loosened social strictures in Iran and was popular among students and the young, even if he failed to open the political system. Although many reformists consider him to be a disappointment, it would be easier for America and other outsiders to engage with him than with Mr Ahmadinejad. Nonetheless, the election would not change everything. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would continue to be influential, whoever wins. Last there is the ticking of the nuclear clock. A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency recently suggested that Iran has more low-enriched nuclear material than previously thought. It has enough for a nuclear bomb, though that material would yet require much more enrichment, which is no mean feat. American hawks note that Mr Khatami is no dove; the nuclear-weapons programme that America’s spies think Iran suspended in 2003 was ongoing under Mr Khatami’s watch. And average Iranians support Iran’s unhampered right to nuclear technology, even if they do not want a bomb. With all these considerations in the balance, it is no wonder that Mr Obama has moved cautiously on Iran. He has pressing domestic and economic concerns, too, so may feel it is wise to proceed slowly with any foreign-policy changes. But even if Mr Obama is wise to take careful steps he—and Mr Ross—will come under greater pressure to spell out soon what path he hopes to follow.