EU+Diplomacy

12/18/08
 * EU Diplomacy**

AFTER six months of high drama and showmanship, the French will hand the rotating European Union presidency over to the Czechs on January 1st. Often, even fellow Europeans scarcely notice who is at the helm. But few can have missed the chairmanship of France’s hyperactive president, Nicolas Sarkozy. After a presidency mainly preoccupied with the Russia-Georgia war and global economic meltdown, what has Mr Sarkozy’s energetic, abrasive, impulsive brand of diplomacy really amounted to? In terms of their set-piece ambitions, the French achieved much of what they aimed for. In July Mr Sarkozy launched a Union for the Mediterranean, bringing together leaders of 43 countries from the EU and the sea’s rim. It now has a base (Barcelona) and a co-presidency (France and Egypt); its five deputy secretary-generals include an Israeli and a Palestinian. At the recent EU summit in Brussels, Mr Sarkozy also persuaded his colleagues in record time to accept binding rules to reduce carbon emissions by 20% by 2020. On France’s watch, the 27 EU members signed up to an “immigration pact”. Britain and France, the EU’s two biggest military powers, even made modest progress on common European defence: a British-led anti-piracy force off Somalia, the EU’s first joint naval operation, is now cited as an example of the sort of ad hoc military arrangement that the EU should be able to put together at short notice. The mood in the Elysée is quietly triumphant. “Europe has an image of being soft, slow and divided; now it has proved itself to be united, efficient and reactive,” declares a senior presidential aide. Mr Sarkozy thrives on adversity and is bored by tranquillity. With his customary mix of bullying and charm, he has rolled up his sleeves to tackle problems. His shuttle diplomacy during the Russia-Georgia war and the financial crisis was not without fault, and the results were often less impressive than the diplomatic hoopla. But he did help to give Europe a single voice. All this is a far cry from the divisions inside the EU over the Iraq war in 2003, when no leader could pretend to speak for the club and Jacques Chirac, Mr Sarkozy’s predecessor, called for Europe to be a counterweight to American power. French voters approve of the new approach: in one poll, 56% judge Mr Sarkozy’s EU presidency to have been a success. In a paper for the Robert Schumann Foundation, Jean-Dominique Giuliani, the think-tank’s president, described the French presidency’s crisis management as “brilliant”. One EU diplomat calls Mr Sarkozy’s chairmanship “outstanding”. Martin Schulz, the leader of the Socialist group at the European Parliament, has accepted that “the French presidency has been a success.” Even an editorial in //Le Monde//, a leftist daily, has applauded Mr Sarkozy. Yet behind all this self-congratulation lurk more sobering considerations. For all his dynamism, Mr Sarkozy has imposed himself as a globe-trotting dealmaker partly because of the absence of American leadership. The French EU presidency coincided with the dying months of the Bush administration. When Mr Sarkozy rushed to Moscow and Tbilisi in August, for example, the Americans stayed at home. In responding to financial troubles, he has already had to share the limelight with Britain’s Gordon Brown. Come January 20th, when Barack Obama is inaugurated, Mr Sarkozy will be in for a rude shock as the world’s attention turns to a new charismatic leader. Second, Mr Sarkozy’s mercurial leadership style makes him an erratic partner. In his eagerness to broker headline-grabbing deals, he tramples over the sensitivities of other countries, especially smaller ones. He offended the Germans by excluding them from his original plan for the Mediterranean Union. It took months of patient diplomacy to win them round. Yet despite his often strained ties with Chancellor Angela Merkel, Mr Sarkozy seems to find it hard to resist taunting her. Last month, amid frustration over Germany’s reluctance to do more to stimulate its economy, Mr Sarkozy said in front of her that “France is working on it; Germany is thinking about it.” Or consider his dealings with China and Russia. During his 2007 election campaign, Mr Sarkozy promised to be tough on both. Yet French business chiefs are now distressed that he has fallen out with the Chinese, who cancelled a planned EU-China summit. His cosiness with Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, has also taken him off in a strange direction. The Americans were taken aback when Mr Sarkozy declared that their planned anti-missile shield, to be deployed in the Czech Republic and Poland, would “bring nothing to European security”. Mr Sarkozy is now pushing an idea backed by Moscow to hold a summit next year with the Russians to rethink Europe’s “economic and security architecture”, a proposal seen by many EU countries as a Russian ploy to weaken NATO in Europe. Some are even wondering if Mr Sarkozy has ditched his Atlanticism and discovered his inner Gaullism, returning to a traditional French indulgence of Russia and outspoken hostility towards America. It cannot help that, according to insiders, Mr Sarkozy was especially cross that Mr Obama did not meet him when he was in America for a G20 gathering last month. In some ways, Mr Sarkozy is a prisoner of his own impulsiveness, as well as of his tendency to over-personalise diplomatic relations. He has bottomless faith in his ability to persuade others. Hence his efforts, however naive, to accommodate Russia. Mr Sarkozy seems to think that he has an avuncular influence over Mr Medvedev, ten years his junior, and that he can build a grown-up relationship on this. Yet the best bet is that Mr Sarkozy’s underlying instincts remain broadly pro-American. He has sent extra troops to join NATO’s force in Afghanistan. Next April he plans to return France to NATO’s integrated military command, when he co-hosts the alliance’s 60th anniversary meeting. This is one platform that he will exploit to prolong his international prominence. Indeed, it is hard to see Mr Sarkozy taking a back seat after he hands the EU presidency to the Czechs. Despite German hostility, he has not given up hopes of presiding over meetings of countries in the euro, which conveniently excludes the Czechs. He also has his Club Med forum. And in any case, he is unlikely to be deterred by diplomatic niceties. After a speech to the European Parliament this week, he stated that he would naturally “be taking initiatives” next year. Mr Sarkozy may be about to see the last of the EU presidency; but the EU has by no means seen the last of Mr Sarkozy.