Iran+Country+Briefing

World Relations** Enormous effort from intl. community to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear country, especially the rest of Europe, U.S., and Israel. Relations between Iran and Pakistan improved since after the removal of Taliban in 2002, but regional rivalry continues. Sunni-majority Pakistan sides with fellow Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia in its competition with Shiite majority Iran for influence across the broader Islamic world, although Pakistan is far less ideological than either country. Israel threatening to attack Iran's nuclear development sites. Recently conducted long-range missile tests. Some experts believe Israel is becoming more fearful/aggressively inclined due to the new likelihood of Obama beginning "talks" with Iran. ** U.S./lran relations ** US government defines its areas of objectionable Iranian behavior as follows: Iran 's efforts to acquire nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction Its support and involvement of international terrorism Support for violent opposition of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, as well as harmful activities particularly in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in the region Dismal human rights record and lack of respect for its own people (see details below  by roman numerals) ** Nuclear Issues ** Iran is a member of the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty. As a member of the NPT, the enrichment of uranium for a civilian nuclear programme is Iran 's inalienable right. Voluntarily accepted and enforced safeguards even stricter then the Intl. Atomic Enrgy Agency's Additional Protocol until Feb. 2006, when the nuke file was reported under pressure from United States. Numerous intrusive snap visits from the International Atomic Energy Agency (totaling over 2700 hours inspection) have failed to produce a shred of evidence of a weapons programme American hypocrisy - U.S. itself is the most serious violator of the NPT. has refused to reduce nuke arsenal, in violation of Article 6 of the NPT. Developing new generations of warheads for use against non-nuclear adversaries, which also violates the Treaty. Washington has deployed hundreds of such tactical nukes globally, which violates Articles I and II of the NPT. See Ahmadinejad quotes on nuclear issues below, including pointing out U.S. hypocrisy on the topic. ** Hezbollah support ** US intelligence has not seen evidence that Iran dominated or controlled the Hezbollah, but for most of the Hezbollah's existence, it has seen Iran as a major source of money and weapons. regular meetings between Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah leaders. Iran provides financial aid, goods and military services worth some $25-50 million in real-world terms for Hezbollah. These include weapons and anti-Israel Palestinian training. Iran and the IRGC transferred massive numbers of rockets to the Hezbollah to give them a capability to attack Israel in spite of its barriers at the border. o The total number of missiles and rockets in Lebanon are variously estimated at between 40,000 and 110,000, **30,000 of which have been provided by Iran.** While many are unguided Katyusha rockets, many are longer ranged guided missiles. All are operated by Hezbollah Special Forces launch teams. o The long range rockets are large, heavy systems by Hezbollah standards, require much expertise use effectively. They may well be beyond the capability of the Hezbollah to operate without direct support in the field. o They are also not particularly lethal, as they cannot be aimed with any accuracy and most areas in cities mean that one building at most would be hit seriously. Their "panic" effect is more serious, as cities don't function when they are under constant sporadic attack. •  ** Claims nuke program is for peaceful purposes only, ** refused to discontinue despite U.N. requests 2 years ago •  Harsh critic of the Bush administration •  Supports strengthened relations with Russia, Venezuela, Syrian and Persian Gulf States •  ** Believes Palestinians need a stronger voice in the regions future ** and that the **state of Israel** ** and its government is not legitimate ** representation of the population there. •  __ Human Rights Watch __ and the __International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran__ briefed the UN in September on the following: (USE THIS - DEAD BABIES!) Under administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, **basic human rights protection in Iran** ** has deteriorated to new lows. ** i. Iran is the **world leader in child executions** (executed 6 so far in 2008, 130 juveniles convicted and waiting for death at this moment) v. Ahmadinejad's Intelligence Ministry has **targeted Iranians who have active** •  "Anybody who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury." •  "Israel is a rotten, dried tree that will be annihilated in one storm." •  "We are ready to hold dialogue with all countries of the world except for the Israeli regime." •  Israel is "a disgraceful blot" that should be 'wiped off the map."  "Iran is ready to transfer nuclear know-how to the Islamic countries due to their need."  "All nations should be allowed to use different kinds of energies, including nuclear."  "We have firmly decided to use this technology for peaceful purposes within the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, international regulations and cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency." (In regards to the U.S.) - "A country, which possesses the biggest nuclear arsenal, embarks on  proliferation of nuclear weapons in defiance of the safeguards (of NPT) and threatens to use them against others, is not competent to comment on peaceful use of nuclear know-how by other states" ** How Iran would retaliate to attack **  Christian Scientist Monitor analysts - **"Iranian forces no match for American technology on conventional battlefield, but has shown that it can bite back in unconventional ways"**  Iranian networks in Iraq and Afghanistan could imperil U.S. interests there.  American forces throughout Gulf region could be targeted by asymmetric methods and lethal rocket barrages (Pentagon estimated such swarming techniques by boat could cost us 16 of our own larger warships easily)  Iranian partners across the region - such as Hezbollah in Lebanon - could be mobilized to engage in anti-U.S. fight  These partners could also be engaged in full on attacks toward Israel, as well as Iran's own greater- range missiles which were recently test-fired.  Active Military nur-~:>ers at only 540,000 (largest in Mid East), but the greater threat is that retaliation is very unpredictao e anc will likely have global reaches. "One very important issue from a U.S. intelligence perspective, [the Iranian reaction] is probably more unpredictable than the AI-Qaeda threat." - Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies Swedish National Defense College. "Before the enemies touch the trigger, the Iranian armed forces will cut off their hands." - Ahmadinejad "The Americans should know that if they assault Iran, their interests will be harmed anywhere in the world that is possible. The Iranian Nation will respond to any blow with double the intensity." - Ayatollah Sayyad All Khamenei, current Supreme Leader of Iran On that point...  Pro Arguments - Attacking Iran Prevention. If Iran gets nukes, they'll be more ready to attack Israel (reference Ahmadenijad quotes) and we are closer to a 1960s-esque scare of a nuclear confrontation. More likely for an unauthorized or accidental nuclear attack when more countries go nuclear. Iran will be less easy to manage on international relations, and they are already inflammatory towards so many countries. Cons-Attacking Iran Democracy will be slow to take root after initial bombings. Lessons in Iraq, anyone? Retaliation will be massive, unpredictable, and global. (Reference quotes and facts above) Massive civilian casualties and increased anti- Americanism throughout world... not to mention our own troops are to the breaking point. Additional Iranian refugee strain to add to the Iraq refugee crisis (fastest growing ref. crisis in the world) put on neighboring countries and adding to the U.S.'s humanitarian responsibility to take care of such refugees (which we have so far ignored) Acceleration of nuclear and other weapons programs Attacks on our troops around the world & endangerment of fragile successes in Iraq and Afghanistan Oil prices will rocket above $5 a gallon
 * Iran Country Briefing**
 * 2/10/09
 * "Rockets To: Hezbollah With love: Iran" **
 * On Ahmadinejad Current president, elected in 2005 by the people of Iran. **
 * ii. Number of executions in general have nearly quadrupled ** (86 cases 2005, 317 cases 2007 ) - nearly a 300% increase - under his rule. In July 29 men were hanged on a single day (only half those officially reported.)
 * iii. Prosecution of dissidents for their peaceful beliefs ** and opinions has also intensified in recent years. Human rights defenders are routinely harassed and imprisoned for reporting and documenting rights violations.
 * iv. ** Iranian authorities have systematically thwarted **peaceful and legal civil society** ** efforts to advocate for women's rights. ** Advocates have been beaten, harassed, persecuted, and prosecuted.
 * professional ties abroad, ** accusing them of being agents of Western efforts to instigate a "velvet revolution" in Iran. Three Iranians with academic ties to US institutions are currently being held and interrogated, two of them world-renowned AIDS physicians. They have been in arbitrary detention since June 22, 2008.
 * Ahmadinejad quotes: Israel **
 * Nuclear **