Pakistan-Afghanistan-Al-Qaeda

__ PAKISTAN ____ / ____ AFGHANISTAN ____ / AL-QAEDA FACT SHEET __ First of all... Some AI-Qaeda basics.   International Sunni Islamist movement Labeled a //terrorist organization// by the United Nations Security Council and a ton of others, including the country of  Pakistan. Responsible for Sept. 11 attacks Characteristic techniques: suicide attacks + simultaneous bombings of different targets. Members of the organization take a pledge of loyalty to Osama bin Laden. Alternatively, "al-Qaeda-linked" individuals (much more numerous) train in one of its camps in Afghanistan or Sudan but not taken any pledge.  In an internet video in September 200 / Abu Yahya al-Libi, a prominent al-Qaeda icader, mockingly gave the West six tips to wage ideological warfare: 1)  Highlight the views of jihadists who renounce violence    2)   Publicize stories about jihadist atrocities against Muslims 3)  Enlist Muslim religious leaders to denounce jihadists as heretics    4)   Back Islamic movements thai emphasize politics //over jihad// 5)  Discredit and neutralize jihacs: ideologues;    6)   Play up personal or doctrina //c,// sputes among jihadists. "These would indeed be good starting- points." - The Economist  KASHMIR CRISIS: India and Pakistan have fought three wars over the Kashmir area since 1947 when both of them were born as independent nations, Since then both India and Pakistan have staked their claim to Kashmir, centered on historical incidents and on religious affiliations of the Kashmiri people. Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) reportedly involved with bombings of India's embassy in Kabul last July, and some U.S. analysts believe Pakistan will never fully turn its back on Islamist militants as long as it. thinks it can use them against India. U.S. recently reimbursed $365 million for logistical support in the War on Terror. Sharp rise in cross border attacks since February 2008, when a Musharraf impeachment looked likely. Tensions high ever since. AFGHANISTAN WILL NOT BE STABLE WHILE PAKISTAN IS IN CHAOS - U.S. has no choice but to pour cash into Pakistan. TRADE AND LAND DISPUTES: Two areas- Pashtunistan and Baluchistan- have long complicated Afghanistan 's relations with Pakistan. Controversies involving these areas date back to the establishment of the Durand Line in 1893 dividing Pashtun and Baluch tribes living in Afghanistan  from those living in what later became Pakistan. Since 1947, this problem has led to incidents along the border, with extensive disruption of normal trade patterns. Much of Afghanistan remains dependent on Pakistani links for trade and travel to the outside world, and Pakistan views Afghanistan as eventually becoming its primary route for trade with Central Asia. AFGHAN REFUGEES IN PAKISTAN - Pakistan, aided by UN agencies, private groups, and many friendly countries, continues to provide refuge to about 1.4 million Afghans. ** Outlook for 2009-10 - ** The Economist on ** Pakistan ** Political stability is unlikely to improve significantly in 2009-10. Inter-party political rivalry will continue unabated, and the country's security problems will remain unresolved. Relations with the US are likely to deteriorate as a result of the newly announced US policy of conducting military operations in Pakistani territory without the permission of the Pakistani government. Economic policy will remain focused on crisis management for the remainder of 2008 and into 2009. Despite a shortfall of US$10bn to meet short-term liabilities, Pakistan is loathe to turn to the IMF for assistance. The government's focus on reining in the fiscal deficit means that it will attempt to cut back on expenditure. Nevertheless, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects the deficit to reach 6.2% of GDP in fiscal year 2008/09 (July-June). We forecast that real GDP growth (expenditure measure) will slow to 4.2% in 2008/09, from 6% in 2007/08. Accelerating price rises will depress real wages, and thus consumer spending. GDP growth will increase to 4.7% in 2009/10. The de facto leader of the Pakistan People's Party, Asif All Zardari, was elected president : September 6th. A suicide bomb attack on the Marriott hotel in the capital, Islamabad, killed more than 5C people and injured hundreds on September 20th. US forces have conducted raids in Pakistani territory in pursuit of Islamist militants. Pakistan 's army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, condemned the incursions, and reports emerged of  Pakistani and US forces exchanging fire. The finance minister, Syed Naveed Qamar, announced an economic stabilization package in mid-September designed to raise Pakistan 's foreign-exchange reserves to the equivalent of 2-3 months of import cover. As part of the stabilization package, the government withdrew its subsidy on gas and announced that the subsidy on electricity would be eliminated June 2009. Foreign-exchange reserves fell by US$690m to US$8.Ibn in the week ending September 27th. The Pakistan rupee has fallen to a record low, and Pakistan 's sovereign debt outlook has been downgraded by credit-rating agencies. Remittance inflows increased by an average of 24% year on year in July-August 2008, to a total of US$1.2bn. Foreign-exchange reserves fell by US$690m to US$8.Ibn in the week ending September 27th. The Pakistan rupee has fallen to a record low, and Pakistan 's sovereign debt outlook has been downgraded by credit-rating agencies. Remittance inflows increased by an average of 24% year on year in July-August 2008, to a total of US$1.2bn. And lastly on Pakistan issues... WE ARE LOSING IN AFGHANISTAN BECAUSE OF SANCTUARIES IN PAKISTAN - Our military cannot defeat the Taliban //as// long as they have a sanctuary across the border GROWING NATIONAL SECURITY HAZARD TO US INTERESTS - this sanctuary that al-Qaeda and the Taliban have built in Pakistan can and will be, sooner or later, used to target American interests outside of South Asia, possibly including in the United States itself. The United States should //be// extremely cautious about repeating the cross-border activity, at least in the last months of this administration until we can get a new dialogue started. LOW CONFIDENCE IN U.S. - The Pakistani army in particular feel that the U.S. has let them down, over and over again, over the last 50 years. //A recent poll in// // Pakistan //// said the majority of Pakistanis think the violence // //.// their country is the result of the United States, // not al-Qaeda and its allies. FURTHER INCITE ALREADY RAMPANT ANTI-AMERICANISM - These kinds of operations can easily incite even further anti-Americanism, and cripple our efforts. SINCE PAKISTAN IS A NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATE, WE CANNOT INVADE AND OCCUPY to cleanse it of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. WE NEED TO GET PAKISTANIS TO WORK WITH US IN ORDER TO FINISH THE JOB AND GET RID OF THE TALIBAN AND AL-QAEDA - There is no unilateral American solution to the problem of these sanctuaries in Pakistan. Their full allegiance is far less likely if we are attacking within their borders without their permission. WORK WITH THE CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT AND INCREASE OUR ASSISTANCE -To reverse the distrust and the lack of faith in America that has accumulated, we should work with the civilian government, show them we want democracy in Pakistan, and increase our assistance to Pakistan , especially in economic areas as Sen. Joseph Biden proposed. Increase military aid but link conditions to the funding; HELP ESTABLISH A RECOGNIZED INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN - If we want Pakistan to enforce border controls and to guard its border to prevent infiltration, a good first step would be to have that border become a real international border. Putting pressure on Afghanistan to accept the border with Pakistan imposed in 1893 (but never accepted) would also be helpful to Pakistan 's diplomatic needs and improve U.S. standing with Pakistan further. TRAIN PAKISTANI OFFICERS ON COUNTERTERRORISM TACTICS PUBLICLY DECLARE INTENTION TO STAY OUT OF REGION IN THE LONG TERM ** Afghanistan **** - Country Briefing ** Borders on China, Turkmenistan , Uzbekistan , Pakistan and Iran. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks America, Afghanistan became ground zero in America 's war on terror. The U.S. launched a bombing campaign to support an alliance of tribal militias to force Taliban from power and to track down Osama bin Laden and his Al-Qaeda terrorist group. US coalition & NATO face enormous challenges to maintain security and resurrect stability, with a few reasons being: •  It's one of the world's weakest economies, •  the overall lack of food availability, •  harsh environment, •  farmers hindered by the fact that so much of the land in Afghanistan is plagued by landmines and unexploded ordinance, •  and a resurgent Taliban insurgency that appears to be adopting tactics from Iraqi insurgents.
 * Who is AI-Qaeda? ** (Translation: "The Base")
 * Objectives: ** end foreign influence in Muslim countries and the creation of a new Islamic "caliphate" (a single Islamic state, national boundaries abolished, that would stretch from Indonesia to Morocco and contain more than 1.5 billion people )
 * How to fight al-Q - recommendations from a terrorist! **
 * Mindset: ** Reward for suicides and killing waits in paradise. They seek not realities of political gains, but restoring the mythologized caliphate that was destroyed in 1924. Muslims who object the notion that Islam is not on attack from all sides (America, the West, the Jews, puppet Arab leaders) and won't join the fight are apostates. Thus, mass murder is justified as a defense of Islam.
 * International relations within the region involving Pakistan and Afghanistan **
 * INDIA AND PAKISTAN ** - "We should probably try to facilitate a better understanding between Pakistan and India and try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that they can stay focused not on India, but on the situation with those militants." Obama, Nov. 3
 * PAKISTAN **** AND ****U.S. **** - **
 * PAKISTAN **** AND ****AFGHANISTAN **** - **
 * Recent events in Pakistan **
 * Are the US/Pakistan cross-border attacks good or bad in the longer run for the **
 * United States ****? **
 * Arguments in favor: **
 * Arguments against: **
 * Alternative solutions: **
 * With an interim government in place, **** Afghanistan **** has begun to build the foundations of an infrastructure. **